Following a year of high price growth like , the annual percentage change in can be higher than recent year-over-year change i. For example, although food-at-home prices were only 1. While price growth moderated substantially in , which the recent year-over-year values reflect, the annual percentage change captures the annual change from all months in compared to For a summary of forecasting methods used in the Food Price Outlook, see ERS Refines Forecasting Methods in the Food Price Outlook.

Between the s and early s, food-at-home prices and food-away-from-home prices increased at similar rates. However, between and , their growth rates diverged; while food-at-home prices deflated in and , monthly food-away-from-home prices rose consistently.

Differences between the costs of serving prepared food at restaurants and retailing food in supermarkets and grocery stores partly explain this difference.

In , food-at-home prices increased 3. This convergence was largely driven by a rapid increase in food-at-home prices following the onset of the Coronavirus COVID pandemic, particularly for meats and poultry, while food-away-from-home price inflation remained similar to its inflation rate.

In , all food prices increased 3. No food categories tracked by USDA, ERS decreased in price in compared with their prices in In , food prices increased by 9.

Food-at-home prices increased by All food price categories increased by more than 5 percent, and all food categories grew faster than their historical average rate.

Following an outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza HPAI , egg prices had the largest price increase Beef and veal prices increased the least 5. Year-over-year price increases continued to slow for all food, food at home, and food away from home.

Food-at-home prices were 1. Five food-at-home categories had lower prices in December than in December eggs, fresh vegetables, fish and seafood, dairy products, and other meats. In , prices for most food categories are predicted to change at a rate below their year historical average.

Prices are predicted to increase for 10 food-at-home categories and decrease for 5 food-at-home categories in , though the measures of uncertainty do not rule out either an increase or decrease in prices in for most categories. Beef and veal prices were unchanged between November and December but remained 8.

Beef and veal prices are predicted to increase 5. Prices for beef and veal are predicted to experience the highest price growth of any category in as prices remain elevated following consistent growth in Pork prices fell 1.

Pork prices are predicted to decrease 1. Retail egg prices increased 8. An outbreak of HPAI that began in contributed to elevated egg prices by reducing the U. egg-layer flock. After egg prices peaked in January , they declined or stabilized through much of However, prices have increased again in recent months after HPAI was confirmed in egg layers in November for the first time since December The outbreak has affected about 4.

Egg prices are predicted to decrease 4. This wide prediction interval reflects the volatility in retail egg prices. Prices for fats and oils increased by 0. Prices for fats and oils are predicted to increase 3. Fats and oils is a category that had high within-year price growth in , which contributes to the difference between its annual change in 9.

Prices for fresh fruits and fresh vegetables both decreased 0. Prices for fresh fruits were 3. In , prices for fresh fruits and vegetables are predicted to continue their slow growth from recent years relative to other categories. Prices for fresh fruits are predicted to increase 1.

Prices for fresh vegetables are predicted to decrease 0. Prices for cereals and bakery products declined by 0. Prices were 2. Prices for cereals and bakery products are predicted to decrease 1.

A Producer Price Index PPI resembles a CPI in that it reflects price changes over time. However, instead of retail prices, a PPI provides a measure of the average prices paid to domestic producers for their output.

PPIs are reported for nearly every industry in the goods-producing sector of the economy. Three major PPI commodity groups are of interest to food markets: unprocessed foodstuffs and feedstuffs , processed foods and feeds , and finished consumer foods.

These farm- and wholesale-level prices give a general sense of price movements across various stages of production in the U.

food supply chain. The PPIs are typically far more volatile than the downstream CPIs. Price volatility decreases as products move from the farm to the wholesale sector to the retail sector.

Always check the label before purchasing. More ways to save:. When it comes to cheap groceries, pantry staples are the big winners. This category includes dry and canned goods such as flour, oatmeal, chicken stock, nuts, nut butters and seeds. Among the cheapest staples are dried and canned beans — they're also easy to prepare and provide a great source of plant-based protein and fiber, two very important nutrients that are often only available in more costly foods.

Grains like brown rice and oatmeal also score high in cost-effectiveness and nutrition. Frozen foods can be stored in your freezer for months. Again, consider buying in bulk when frozen products are on sale. Items worth stocking up on include:. More ways to save money on groceries.

Here are a few other simple tips from our experts to food shop on a budget:. Even in tough times, it's possible to find affordable and healthy groceries with a few smart strategies. The best ways include buying in bulk when items are on sale, shopping seasonally and loading up on pantry staples.

Compare prices online when you can look for coupons while you're there and stick to grocery stores nearby. With a little planning, your meals will be healthy and nutritious without breaking the bank.

And if you need a week off, consider ordering from one of the more affordable cheap meal delivery services. She holds a bachelor's degree in journalism from Miami University of Ohio and a master's degree in clinical nutrition from NYU.

Prior to Good Housekeeping , she worked at one of the largest teaching hospitals in New York City as a cardiac transplant dietitian. She has authored numerous chapters in clinical nutrition textbooks and has also worked in PR and marketing for food company start-ups.

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